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Bayesian Calibration of the Thermosphere-ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (Tie-gcm) : Volume 2, Issue 1 (12/05/2009)

By Guillas, S.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003990173
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 22
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Bayesian Calibration of the Thermosphere-ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (Tie-gcm) : Volume 2, Issue 1 (12/05/2009)  
Author: Guillas, S.
Volume: Vol. 2, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Geoscientific, Model
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Maute, A., Rougier, J., Guillas, S., Linkletter, C. D., & Richmond, A. D. (2009). Bayesian Calibration of the Thermosphere-ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (Tie-gcm) : Volume 2, Issue 1 (12/05/2009). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Statistical Science & Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, UK. In this paper, we demonstrate a procedure for calibrating a complex computer simulation model having uncertain inputs and internal parameters, with application to the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). We compare simulated magnetic perturbations with observations at two ground locations for various combinations of calibration parameters. These calibration parameters are: the amplitude of the semidiurnal tidal perturbation in the height of a constant-pressure surface at the TIE-GCM lower boundary, the local time at which this maximises and the minimum night-time electron density. A fully Bayesian approach, that describes correlations in time and in the calibration input space is implemented. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach leads to potential optimal values for the amplitude and phase (within the limitations of the selected data and calibration parameters) but not for the minimum night-time electron density. The procedure can be extended to include additional data types and calibration parameters.

Bayesian calibration of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM)

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