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Potential Variation of Great Lakes Water Levels : A Hydrologic Response Analysis1

By Hartmann, Holly C.

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Book Id: WPLBN0000661934
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 580.56 KB.
Reproduction Date: 2005
Full Text

Title: Potential Variation of Great Lakes Water Levels : A Hydrologic Response Analysis1  
Author: Hartmann, Holly C.
Volume:
Language: English
Subject: Science., Ecology & environment, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.)
Collections: National Oceanographic Data Center
Historic
Publication Date:
Publisher: Government Reference Publication

Excerpt
Excerpt: POTENTIAL VARIATION OF GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS: A HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE ANALYSIS. The potential for water level changes on Lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie is examined, using the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's Hydrologic Response Model (HRM) in conjunction with several hydrometeorologic and water management scenarios. Of the scenarios examined, only a drought similar to that of the early 1960's could return the lakes to their normal levels of 1900-1969. If the regional climatology of 1971-1985 persists for several years, the lake level regime will average about 0.5 m higher than that of 1900-1969. The extreme water supply conditions of 1985 must be accompanied by 50% increases in Lake Superior outflows and persist for about 10 years to raise Lake Michigan and Huron levels 1.0 m above their 1986 record levels. The practice of increasing winter flows from Lake Superior to provide water storage in the spring and summer has practically no effect on downstream lake levels. The effect of a barge that accidentally lodged in the Niagara River in August 1986 raised levels on Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, and Erie by a maximum of 1, 4, and 5 cm, respectively; by June 1987 the effect had entirely dissipated.

Table of Contents
CONTENTS PAGE ABSTRACT.................................................................. 1 1. 2. 3. INTRODUCTION .......................................................... 1 HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE MODEL ............................................. 2 CLIMATIC EFFECTS ON LAKE LEVELS....................................... 6 3.1 Falling Lake Levels ............................................. 9 3.2 Rising Lake Levels .............................................. 15 4. HUMAN EFFECTS ON ME LEVELS...'....................................... 21 4.1 Lake Superior Regulation Modifications .......................... 21 4.2 Diversion Modifications ......................................... 22 4.3 Niagara River Modifications ..................................... 26 4.4 The 1986 Barge Accident ......................................... 27 5. / S~Y............................................................... 27 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 0. -~---~ I FIGURES Figure l.-- Deviation between modeled and actual beginning-of-month lake levels for the calibration period........................ 4 Figure 2.-- Deviation between modeled and actual monthly connectingchannel flows for the calibration period...................... 5 Figure 3.--Mean annual water levels of Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, and Erie for 1900-1985................................. 7

 

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